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APPENDIX 1
Source: A-G's Dept. and ABS
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YEAR
|
% Civil Marriages of All Marriages
|
% INCREASE
|
|
1979
|
36.0 %
|
+ 15 % on previous decade
|
|
1989
|
42.2 %
|
+ 6% on previous decade
|
|
1999
|
51.3%
|
+ 9 % on previous decade
|
|
2009 ??
|
62 % ???
|
projected increase 11%
|
CIVIL Marriage Celebrants - UNDER Section 39.2.
| October 2000 |
No. of Civil Marriage Celebrants = |
1671 |
| In 1999 |
No of ALL Marriages in Australia |
114,300 |
|
% Performed by Civil Marriage Celebrants |
51.3% |
|
No. Performed by Civil Marriage Celebrants |
58,636 |
Table 1 – CIVIL MARRIAGES 1999
|
Number Of Weddings
Per Annum
|
Celebrants
%
|
Celebrants
Number
|
|
Nil
|
6.78 %
|
115
|
|
1 - 10
|
29.53 %
|
502
|
|
11 - 25
|
26.20 %
|
446
|
|
26 - 50
|
21.70 %
|
369
|
|
51 - 100
|
12.08 %
|
205
|
|
101 - 150
|
2.53 %
|
43
|
|
151 - 200
|
0.95 %
|
16
|
|
200 plus
|
0.25 %
|
4
|
That is: 84 % of celebrants perform a wedding a week or less.
1999 Ratio: 1 celebrants per 32 weddings pa
ie approx 1 wedding per fortnight average
Any increase in numbers of CMC will means even fewer weddings per celebrant.
This compares with
1995 Ratio: 1 celebrants per 64 weddings pa
ie approx 1 wedding per week average
So there is already an over supply of celebrants.
Average Income per wedding Estimate = $250 net
Average weekly earnings from weddings
21 % of celebrants earn $125 to $250 p. week
64% of celebrants earn $125 or less p week.
12 % of celebrants earn $250 to $500 p. week
ONLY 3 % of celebrants = over $500 p. week
MYTH:
that celebrants earn a lot from weddings
|
|
Average No. of Weddings per WEEK
1999
|
Percentage of CUMULATIVE TOTAL NOS of CM Celebrants
|
Total No. of CIVIL Celebrants
|
|
1 or less
|
84.21 %
|
1432
|
|
Over 1
|
15.81 %
|
268
|
|
Over 2
|
3.75 %
|
63
|
|
Over 3
|
1.2 %
|
20
|
|
Over 4
|
0.25 %
|
4
|
There is no shortage of celebrants to justify any increase.
Better entry standards & complaints / reviews will remove unsatisfactory celebrants and create new spaces.
PREDICTIONS:
The AG’s Dept believes that:
- many current celebrants will leave under the new requirements.
- number of new celebrants will be low because new CMCs need to meet competence standards
- market forces alone will best determine numbers
However the long term cumulative effect on numbers is a key concern because
- a one year part-time TAFE level course will not a restrictive barrier to most applicants
- income earning power is NOT to only or main motivation to become a CMC for many people
- once restrictions on numbers are removed, life appointments will allow appointments for 25 to 30 years
Whilst it is impossible to predict accurately, taking all the above factors into account, without any controls on numbers of celebrants there could be as low as:
By 2010 1 celebrant : 21 weddings per year
By 2020 1 celebrant : 13 weddings per year
Could the situation deteriorate to this extent ?
“Open Market” can not guarantee it will not.
The safe option is to set appointments based on a community need for each area (eg ratio of celebrants / weddings) thus having a mechanism to manage numbers if “market forces” do not bring expected results.
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